Looking ahead – transfer thoughts

11 transfers left and 10 gameweeks remaining – from the outside, my transfer tally looks relatively healthy. But with blanks and double gameweeks looming, I need to be careful in managing an uncertain road ahead. With a couple of potential trades that have caught my eye this week, I try and assess if I can afford to make them or whether I need to hold fire and save my transfers for future uncertainty.

Dann > Alderweireld 

If I make this trade, it will be on Sunday when Spurs welcome the Swans to White heart late. Dann has been a relatively recent acquisition (and has done well bagging a couple of goals) but Palace still look shaky at the back and have a confirmed blank in gameweek 32. In Alderweireld, we have one of the few defenders who can match Dann’s attacking output but also forms part of the best defence in the league (although he comes in at a pricier 6.5). Most crucially though, from Sunday, Alderweireld has 4 fixtures (SWA, wha, ARS, avl) compared to Dann’s 2 (sun, LIV) over the next couple of weeks.

Fabregas >Sigurdsson

If I go ahead with this move, I will make it on Wednesday. This gives Fabregas the chance to deliver in two away matches (sot, nor) before making way for the much improved Sigurdsson. From Wednesday, Sigurdsson has 3 encounters (ars, NOR, bou) compared to Fabregas’s single fixture (STO). Fabgregas has been churning out some decent points for me in recent weeks, but the blank in gameweek 32 may force my hand.

Are these moves to short term?

If I make both trades, I will be able to field 10 players in gameweek 32 (Payet my only player not having a fixtures that week). This is certainly more than most and should give me the edge in that week. But looking further ahead those who have a blank are also going to have a double gameweek at some point, with Everton and Liverpool having to play 2 extra fixtures from gameweek 33. So are these trades smart moves? Or will they lead to long term pain?

Not an easy question to answer. I would hope that my remaining 9 trades would be enough to capitalise on future fixture swings but throw in a couple of injuries, a looming Alli suspension and a few spent on captain swaps and I could be left hamstrung in the closing stages. Lets try and breakdown how many transfers I would realistically need following gw32.

Remaining transfers needed for gw 33 onwards (7 weeks)

  • At least 2 Everton players – Barkley, Lukaku and possibly a defender. Good run in and 2 extra fixtures
  • Possibly 2 Liverpool players – No idea who at this stage but they have great fixtures and, like Everton, have 2 extra fixtures.
  • Possibly 2 Arsenal – Ozil and defender – good run in and an extra fixture
  • Captain swaps – with the fixtures yet to be published, its tough to guess how many will be needed for the run in, but lets say 3
  • Injuries and suspension – again this could be anything from 0 to 5. Lets say 2

As you can see, this is by no means an exact science but it does give me a rough idea that I will need around 11 transfers from gameweek 33 to take best advantage of the change in fixtures. But lets not forget that captain swaps and injury trades are likely to be used to transfer in players from Everton, Liverpool and Arsenal, so maybe 9 is enough after all?

 

 

For comparison, according to D1sable’s most recent article over on Fantasy Football Scout, the top 100 have an average of 7 transfers left. Although thats as of 11th Feb, so it is probably closer to 6 now and even fewer than that come gw33.

One final thought on transfers, is that the closer you get to the finish line the less time your trades have to make an impact. So while its nice knowing you have plenty of transfers left to cover every eventuality, they may be wasted if you wait until the last few weeks.

 

3 thoughts on “Looking ahead – transfer thoughts

  1. ianp1970 February 24, 2016 / 7:19 pm

    Might do Hennessey to Lloris on Sunday: SWA/whm/ARS/avl/BOU rather than sun/LIV/LEI, and probably better points later on too. Can also foresee Ramsey to Firmino/Couthino on March 6th.

    Other plans based around the DGWs could include:

    Ozil to Wijnaldum
    Mahrez to Barkley
    Kane to Sturridge
    Vardy to Lukaku

    This would still leave me about a dozen freebies to alternate captains around at the end of the season, where I should get something like Sat/Sun/Mon/Tue/Wed in all 3 of GWs 34, 35 or 36 and 37🙂

    Like

    • Will aka The Sky Guru February 26, 2016 / 11:20 pm

      Could make up some serious ground with those trades – how many do you have left now?

      Seen that the fixture list has been published (although not with DGWs of course) – lots of Monday games which bodes well for those with transfers left!

      Like

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